MineGuard
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Dashboard Demo — 30 Day Simulation

This simulation shows how MineGuard detects gold skimming over 30 days. Days 1-10 establish a normal baseline. On Day 11, a worker begins diverting ~20% of gold production. The system cross-correlates fuel consumption, equipment runtime, and daily electrochemical assay data to build statistical confidence — reaching 95% certainty by Day 26.

The key insight: without the daily assay, low gold could mean “bad ground” or “theft” — you can't tell. The assay independently verifies ground quality each day, closing this gap.

Equipment Runtime (Hours/Day)

Fuel Verification — Expected vs Actual

Fuel consumption closely matches runtime predictions, ruling out equipment issues.

Daily Electrochemical Assay — Ground Richness

Every day, workers scoop ~20g of raw ground into a jar with bleach+HCl every 30 minutes. Gold dissolves passively throughout the work day. At end of day, an SWV measurement gives the actual ground richness in g/t — the worker cannot fake this number.

How
Composite scoops
20g every 30 min → one jar
Dissolution
~8 hours passive
Bleach+HCl while you work
Measurement
Seconds (SWV)
Insert strip, press button

Why this matters: Without the daily assay, a low gold cleanout could mean “bad ground” or “skimming” — you can't tell which. The assay independently verifies ground quality, so when the assay says the ground is rich but cleanout is low, the only explanation is human intervention. Notice how assay grades (green) vary naturally while cleanout-implied grades (blue) diverge downward after Day 11.

Recovery Ratio — Cleanout vs Assay Prediction

The ratio of actual cleanout to assay-predicted gold should stay near 100%. After Day 11 it drops to ~80% — the assay says the ground is good, but gold isn't showing up at cleanout.

Yield Prediction Formula

MineGuard uses today's assay grade (not a fixed assumption) to calculate expected gold. The daily electrochemical assay provides the actual ground richness, making the prediction accurate even when ground quality varies.

Expected Gold (g) = Material (tons) × Daily Assay Grade (g/t) × Recovery Rate

Example — Day 5 (Feb 5)

Material
46
tons
Assay Grade
0.88
g/t (from SWV)
Recovery Rate
70%
sluice efficiency

28.3 g = 46 × 0.88 × 0.7

The assay grade changes every day because ground quality in Guyana is highly variable (some days 0.7 g/t, some days 1.3 g/t). The daily assay captures this reality. The recovery rate (70%) is established during the supervised baseline period and stays relatively constant for the same equipment.

Yield Comparison — Assay-Predicted vs Cleanout (grams)

“Predicted” is calculated from the daily assay grade — not a fixed number. When assay says the ground is rich but cleanout is low, gold is going missing.

Statistical Confidence — Anomaly Detection

Confidence builds over time as anomalous data accumulates. The 95% threshold marks detection certainty.

Alert Timeline

Cross-correlation log: when fuel matches runtime and the daily assay confirms good ground, but cleanout gold is consistently low — the only explanation is human intervention.

10
Normal
5
Warning
12
Elevated
3
Critical
Day 01
All metrics normal. Assay: 0.95 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 02
All metrics normal. Assay: 1.12 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 03
All metrics normal. Assay: 0.78 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 04
All metrics normal. Assay: 1.05 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 05
All metrics normal. Assay: 0.88 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 06
All metrics normal. Assay: 1.23 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 07
All metrics normal. Assay: 0.72 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 08
All metrics normal. Assay: 1.15 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 09
All metrics normal. Assay: 0.93 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 10
All metrics normal. Assay: 1.08 g/t. Cleanout matches expected yield.
Day 11
Assay: 1.18 g/t. Cleanout 10% below assay-predicted yield. Day 1 of anomaly. Runtime and fuel normal.
Day 12
Assay: 0.85 g/t. Cleanout 19% below assay-predicted yield. Day 2 of anomaly. Runtime and fuel normal.
Day 13
Assay: 0.97 g/t. Cleanout 18% below assay-predicted yield. Day 3 of anomaly. Runtime and fuel normal.
Day 14
Assay: 1.32 g/t. Cleanout 21% below assay-predicted yield. Day 4 of anomaly. Runtime and fuel normal.
Day 15
Assay: 0.76 g/t. Cleanout 17% below assay-predicted yield. Day 5 of anomaly. Runtime and fuel normal.
Day 16
Assay: 1.10 g/t. Cleanout deficit 22%. Ground quality verified by assay — rules out "bad ground." Fuel matches runtime. Confidence 62%.
Day 17
Assay: 0.91 g/t. Cleanout deficit 19%. Ground quality verified by assay — rules out "bad ground." Fuel matches runtime. Confidence 65%.
Day 18
Assay: 1.25 g/t. Cleanout deficit 18%. Ground quality verified by assay — rules out "bad ground." Fuel matches runtime. Confidence 69%.
Day 19
Assay: 0.83 g/t. Cleanout deficit 23%. Ground quality verified by assay — rules out "bad ground." Fuel matches runtime. Confidence 72%.
Day 20
Assay: 1.04 g/t. Cleanout deficit 19%. Ground quality verified by assay — rules out "bad ground." Fuel matches runtime. Confidence 75%.
Day 21
Assay: 1.14 g/t. Cleanout deficit 21%. Ground quality verified by assay — rules out "bad ground." Fuel matches runtime. Confidence 78%.
Day 22
Assay: 0.79 g/t. Cleanout deficit 17%. Ground quality verified by assay — rules out "bad ground." Fuel matches runtime. Confidence 81%.
Day 23
Assay: 1.21 g/t. Cleanout deficit 22%. Ground quality verified by assay — rules out "bad ground." Fuel matches runtime. Confidence 84%.
Day 24
Confidence 86%. Assay: 0.88 g/t. Cleanout consistently 19% below assay prediction. Cross-correlation: fuel OK, runtime OK, assay OK, cleanout NOT OK.
Day 25
Confidence 89%. Assay: 1.06 g/t. Cleanout consistently 18% below assay prediction. Cross-correlation: fuel OK, runtime OK, assay OK, cleanout NOT OK.
Day 26
Confidence 91%. Assay: 0.94 g/t. Cleanout consistently 24% below assay prediction. Cross-correlation: fuel OK, runtime OK, assay OK, cleanout NOT OK.
Day 27
Confidence 93%. Assay: 1.17 g/t. Cleanout consistently 25% below assay prediction. Cross-correlation: fuel OK, runtime OK, assay OK, cleanout NOT OK.
Day 28
ALERT: Confidence 96%. Assay confirms good ground (0.82 g/t) but cleanout is 20% below predicted over 18 days. Systematic gold skimming detected.
Day 29
ALERT: Confidence 98%. Assay confirms good ground (1.09 g/t) but cleanout is 22% below predicted over 19 days. Systematic gold skimming detected.
Day 30
ALERT: Confidence 99%. Assay confirms good ground (0.96 g/t) but cleanout is 26% below predicted over 20 days. Systematic gold skimming detected.

Gold Yield Calculator

Enter your own values to see how the daily assay enables discrepancy detection. The “Assay Grade” is what the electrochemical measurement says the ground contains — the worker cannot fake this.

Input Parameters

Calculation Results

Assay-Predicted Gold35.0 g
50 × 1 × 0.70 = 35.0

Cleanout Reported30.0 g

Discrepancy5.0 g
Discrepancy %14.3%
Warning — Investigate

Cleanout is 14.3% below the assay prediction. Worth monitoring over the next few days.